XRP Trapped in a $1.4 Deadlock: Trading Volume Keeps Shrinking—Can It Break the $1.7 Resistance?

As of September 8, 2026, according to data from Gate market data, the XRP price is $1.3883. Over the past 24 hours, it is down 1.19%, and it remains within the past week’s trading range of $1.31 to $1.48. Since the strong rebound from the August low of $0.9867, XRP ran into resistance near $1.70 and now appears to be in a delicate phase where "no one wants to sell, and no one wants to buy." The coexistence of low volatility and low trading volume often signals that the market is about to choose a direction. Whether XRP can break out of this sluggish setup and retest—or even surpass—the key resistance at $1.70 next will likely come down to clues from its unique supply-and-demand dynamics, on-chain behavior, and technical signals.

Source: Gate market data

XRP’s unique supply-and-demand logic: Ripple custody unlocks and market digestion

XRP’s price narrative is inseparable from Ripple’s monthly, routine custody unlock mechanism. Earlier this month, Ripple released 1 billion XRP from its custody accounts as planned. However, based on on-chain tracking data, about 700 million of those tokens were re-locked within just a few hours into a new custody contract. That means the actual potential increase in circulating supply entering the market is only about 300 million XRP, worth roughly $422 million. This "release-to-lock" process is a standard way Ripple manages market expectations, but its impact is still worth close attention. Data shows that near the current price, buy-side depth is about $108.2 million. In theory, the potential sell pressure from those 300 million tokens is nearly four times the buy-side depth. Yet the price hasn’t collapsed. The market can hold steady precisely because nearly no holders are willing to dump at this level.

On-chain behavior: long-term holders staying "rock solid"

The market’s deadlock is clearly reflected in on-chain data. Glassnode shows that the share of addresses holding XRP for 1 to 2 years rose from about 17.3% at the end of August to around 18.2% today. This suggests that although the price has pulled back since August 22, the most steadfast cohort hasn’t chosen to exit. This "accumulation" behavior provides a natural downside floor. On the other hand, the other side of the coin is a sharp drop in trading activity. Daily transaction volume has fallen to about 27.6 million XRP, and the market seems to be dominated mainly by long-term holders who aren’t trading. In addition, network activity on the XRP ledger shows a different picture in early September: daily transaction counts have stayed above 2 million, indicating that usage of the underlying network hasn’t ground to a halt despite the price stagnation.

Source: Glassnode

Key technical levels: a golden cross and divergence from volume

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP is at a crucial inflection point. The 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) has quickly risen to around $1.32 and is attempting to move upward through the 200-day EMA (about $1.3540). This potential golden-cross formation is often seen as a signal of improving medium- and long-term momentum. Meanwhile, the 200-day moving average around $1.39 provides near-immediate support—one reason the current price has managed to hold near $1.40.

However, there are also technical concerns, especially the ongoing contraction in trading volume. When a golden cross forms but trading volume doesn’t expand to confirm it, the signal’s effectiveness is often questionable. Historically, golden-cross signals formed during low-volume periods have sometimes turned into false breakouts. Analysts say XRP’s top priority is to break through the $1.4785 short-term resistance—the recent high point of each rebound since late August. If XRP can consolidate above that level, the upside targets would be $1.5832, followed by the $1.6678 to $1.7038 zone tied to the August high. Conversely, if the daily close falls below $1.3092, the current short-term bullish structure may fail.

Derivatives market: big players’ "cautious optimism"

The futures positioning structure provides insight into the market’s current "neutral" sentiment. In terms of the number of accounts, among large traders, the number of long accounts is 2.86 times that of short accounts. For retail traders, the ratio is 2.46 times—at first glance, suggesting bullish sentiment is strong. However, if you measure by the size of open interest, the long-to-short ratio falls to 2.09, which is below the retail average. This conflicting data reveals the real situation: although most large traders have opened long positions, they haven’t allocated much capital, while their short positions are comparatively larger—reflecting a cautious stance of "bullish but with limited longs." Additionally, XRP is one of the four major cryptocurrencies where the funding rate spread is negative, meaning long positions must pay costs to short positions, which is not a typical feature of a strongly bullish market. Still, looking at overall futures market heat, XRP futures trading volume in August exceeded $64.6 billion, setting a new six-month high. Derivatives remain the main battleground for market positioning.

Conclusion: breaking the deadlock requires outside momentum

Overall, XRP is currently trading within a consolidation range built jointly by a tight supply-and-demand balance and low volatility. On one hand, firm long-term positioning and Ripple’s custody mechanism limit downside room. On the other hand, weak trading volume and a lack of enthusiasm in derivatives’ capital injections leave XRP short of "fuel" to push above $1.70. The market is in a "everything’s ready, just waiting for the east wind" situation—the east wind could come from real progress in XRP’s ledger ecosystem or from a broader shift in overall market sentiment. In the short term, $1.3092 support and $1.4785 resistance will be the key observation points that determine where XRP goes next.

FAQ

Q: Why does the XRP price mostly trade sideways near $1.40 for the long term?

A: Mostly because the market is stuck in a supply-and-demand stalemate. Ripple’s monthly custody releases have not created meaningful sell pressure, while long-term holders are reluctant to sell at current prices, making sellers scarce. At the same time, the market lacks enough buy-side momentum to push prices higher, so trading volume keeps shrinking and price fluctuations narrow.

Q: Will Ripple’s monthly release of 1 billion XRP cause a major drop in price?

A: Usually, no. Ripple’s custody releases are programmatic. After each monthly release, most of the XRP is re-locked into new custody contracts. The portion that actually enters the market and could be sold is far less than 1 billion, and Ripple manages the mechanism based on market conditions. Therefore, this setup doesn’t inherently lead to a price decline.

Q: What conditions does XRP need to reach $1.70?

A: First, it needs to break through the near-term resistance at $1.4785 on increased volume. Second, it needs Bitcoin—or the broader crypto market—to stabilize or rise to lift sentiment. In addition, application-ecosystem development on the XRP ledger or favorable regulatory news could also act as catalysts to push XRP past $1.70.

Q: How should we interpret the current long/short signals in the XRP futures market?

A: The signals are somewhat contradictory. While the number of long accounts far exceeds shorts, by funding size the short positions of large traders are larger, and the funding rate is negative—indicating higher costs to maintain long exposure. This reflects that professional traders may be bullish but are not allocating much capital overall, placing the market in a cautiously optimistic state.