XRP hit its 13-year RSI low: Can $1.29 hold, and how do you confirm a bottom-reversal signal?

XRP is hitting an unusual extreme in momentum across its trading history.

As of September 18, 2026, according to data from Gate Market, XRP is trading around $1.3230, up 2.11% over the past 24 hours, but still down 2.60% on the week. Over the previous few days, the token rapidly slid from $1.49 on September 14 to around $1.27, then found temporary support in the $1.29–$1.30 range. What’s drawing real market attention isn’t the short-term price swings themselves, but the technical readings created by this pullback: XRP’s two-week Relative Strength Index (RSI) has fallen to about 33.5, marking the lowest level in roughly 13 years of trading history.

Source: Gate Market data

This reading sits below all prior lows recorded during the 2018 bear market, the March 2020 crash tied to the pandemic, and the crypto "Crypto Winter" in 2022. In other words, XRP’s momentum on longer timeframes has never been this weak.

But extreme oversold conditions do not automatically equal a bottom.

The tension between an RSI extreme and the long-term structure

Analysts were the first to highlight this historic reading. In the two-week XRP/USD chart they shared, price is still moving within a long-term rising channel that can be traced back years. Right now, it’s nearing the lower boundary of that channel. This trendline connects a series of higher lows and higher highs across multiple cycles, and it hasn’t been decisively broken yet.

Source: X/@Cryptollica

This combination of "momentum breakdown" and "structure still intact" forms the core contradiction in XRP’s current technical setup. The two-week RSI reflects how deeply price has fallen since the start of this month, when it was suppressed by the $1.50 resistance level. Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI on the daily timeframe still hovers around the neutral mid-range of roughly 45, well above the oversold threshold of 30. The signals from these two timeframes do not align. That mismatch is the technical root of the market split—longer timeframes show sellers have reached historic extremes, while shorter timeframes suggest the selling pressure hasn’t fully been priced in yet.

Why $1.29 has become the line in the sand

$1.29 is drawing widespread attention not just because it’s close to the current price. It’s also where several independent technical reference points converge.

The 20-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits around $1.29. The 50-week EMA is far above the current price, acting as overhead resistance. XRP price is currently squeezed between these two moving averages, forming a narrowing technical range. The 50-day Simple Moving Average is at $1.23, and the 200-day moving average is at $1.27. Both are below the current price, meaning the mid-to-long-term trend structure hasn’t suffered a decisive break after this pullback.

However, downside risk is also clear. Technical analyst ChartNerd issued a direct warning: if XRP’s weekly closing price keeps falling below $1.29, the next support level could retreat to the $1.00 psychological mark. He added that since XRP climbed to $1.70, the closing price has repeatedly failed to break above the 50-week moving average effectively. In the medium-term view, the pattern still shows lower highs and lower lows.

At its core, $1.29 is critical because it simultaneously marks the lower boundary of the long-term rising channel, the level of the 20-week EMA, and the neckline level of a prior double-bottom pattern. With multiple technical implications stacked at the same price, any breakout or defense around this level carries signal value beyond a typical support zone.

Directional risk revealed by derivatives data

Beyond the price chart, the derivatives market’s positioning structure provides another layer of insight into current risk.

XRP’s open interest is about $2.34 billion. Over the last 24 hours, long liquidations totaled $11.75 million, while short liquidations were only $0.31 million.

This positioning has two-way implications. A bullish-leaning leverage setup means that if price effectively breaks below $1.29, forced liquidations could accelerate selling momentum and create a short-term feedback loop of sell pressure. On the other hand, if this support holds and triggers a rebound, the demand for covering overly crowded shorts could spark a short squeeze, pushing price upward quickly. Near key technical levels, the concentration of derivatives positioning amplifies price elasticity after the direction is chosen.

Contradictory signals from fund flows and on-chain data

ETF fund flows provide a set of notable counter-signals. As of mid-September, XRP spot ETFs have recorded cumulative net inflows of about $1.716 billion, with total assets net value of roughly $1.396 billion. On September 16 alone, net inflows were about $3.5 million. Earlier on September 14, inflows were also around $8.4 million. During the same period when price dropped significantly, institutional capital did not show large-scale outflows.

On-chain data also points to a similar split. Analyst Ali Martinez cited Santiment data showing that during the week of August 10, whale wallets increased holdings by more than 380 million XRP. Millionaire addresses (wallets holding large amounts of XRP) continued adding during the decline, with no signs of synchronized distribution.

Still, this capital support hasn’t translated into improving price momentum. That’s where the current situation gets complicated: there is structural buying, but it isn’t strong enough yet to offset macro-level sell pressure.

Macro backdrop and regulatory variables

To understand XRP’s drop this round, you can’t separate it from the broader macro and regulatory environment.

A U.S. Senate bill aimed at splitting digital asset regulatory responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC—the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act—failed in a procedural vote, coming up 49 to 50, missing the 60-vote threshold required to advance. Because XRP has been at the center of long-running U.S. regulatory disputes, the bill’s outcome has a direct and significant sensitivity. After the vote failed, XRP fell nearly 10% in a single day, with the drawdown ranking among the top moves for large-cap tokens.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin fell about 3% in the same period to around $75,000, then rebounded slightly. Its market share stayed around a high of 58%, and capital continued shifting toward relative certainty. The altcoin season index is only around 33, signaling reduced appetite for high-risk assets.

Against this macro backdrop, XRP’s oversold readings should be understood as the result of "structural weakness compounded by regulatory catalysts," not just a technical pullback.

Conditions required to confirm a reversal signal

Putting the signals together, XRP’s current technical picture can be summarized as: momentum sits at historical extreme lows, the long-term structure hasn’t broken down, derivatives positioning is net long and crowded, and there is institutional buying—yet price responsiveness has not followed.

In this setup, confirming a reversal would require meeting a majority of the following conditions:

On the price level, weekly closes must hold above $1.29 and gradually reclaim levels above the 20-week EMA. On the medium-term structure, price needs to print higher lows and higher highs, breaking the sequence of lower highs that has continued since $1.70. On the momentum side, the two-week RSI needs to start rising from the current ~33.5 level rather than extending sideways in oversold territory. A more conservative confirmation would require price to reclaim the $1.52 area and the 50-week EMA resistance there.

Conversely, if a weekly close confirms a break below $1.29, the lower boundary of the long-term rising channel will face serious scrutiny. Around $1.00, on-chain data shows a dense historical turnover zone of roughly 3 billion XRP near that price level, which could form the next potential demand area.

Conclusion

XRP’s current technical situation is, at its core, an incomplete market-pricing process. The two-week RSI at a 13-year low delivers a clear message: seller power has reached an unprecedented level in the momentum dimension. But an extreme momentum value alone isn’t a buy signal. It’s more like a conditional alert—this market has entered a phase where highly focused attention on changes in price structure is required.

The importance of $1.29 isn’t whether it will be defended immediately or broken soon. It’s that it gives the market a clear, observable threshold. Price behavior around this level, changes in trading volume, and adjustments in derivatives positioning will reveal this cycle earlier than any single indicator—whether it is moving toward bottom confirmation or into a deeper repricing.

FAQ

What does XRP’s two-week RSI of 33.5 mean?

The two-week RSI measures momentum strength over a 14-day cycle. 33.5 sits in oversold territory and is below all prior lows in XRP’s 13-year trading history. That suggests medium-term momentum has compressed to an extreme level, but the oversold reading itself does not constitute a buy signal.

Why is the $1.29 support level so important?

This level aligns with the lower boundary of the long-term rising channel, the 20-week EMA, and the neckline of a prior double-bottom pattern. Multiple technical meanings converge there, making it a key threshold for determining whether the long-term structure holds.

Is this the bottom for XRP?

There isn’t enough evidence to support that conclusion. A bottom needs all three to align: price structure, momentum recovery, and participation through volume. Right now, only momentum is at an extreme, while price structure is still in a consolidation phase.

Why haven’t sustained ETF inflows stopped the selloff?

The absolute scale of ETF inflows remains relatively small compared with XRP’s total market value and the size of derivatives leverage. In a phase where macro sell pressure and regulatory uncertainty dominate short-term pricing, institutional buying is still not enough to offset broader selling pressure.

After a break below $1.29, where could price go?

Technical reference points point to the $1.00 psychological level. On-chain data shows a dense historical turnover zone of about 3 billion XRP around that level, which could form the next potential demand area.