Telegram Bets on TON: Can 950 Million Users Propel GRAM to Become the Next-Generation Web3 Infrastructure?

In July 2026, Pavel Durov, the founder of Telegram, updated the platform’s monthly active user count on his personal channel—950 million. This figure firmly places Telegram among the world’s top four instant messaging apps, trailing only WhatsApp, WeChat, and Facebook Messenger. However, what truly captured the attention of the crypto industry wasn’t the sheer size of Telegram’s user base, but rather the growing intersection between these users and the crypto world, shifting from "community discussions" to "on-chain activity."

Telegram has long served as the de facto "public discussion layer" for the crypto industry. Major exchange announcements, project governance updates, airdrop information, OTC trading, and on-chain communities all rely on Telegram as their core hub. This user base, with its strong industry ties, makes Telegram one of the most efficient traffic pools for Web3 conversion. Even if only a tiny fraction of its 950 million users become active on-chain addresses, the absolute scale is enough to reshape the ecosystem of any public blockchain.

On May 4, 2026, Durov announced that Telegram would replace the TON Foundation as the primary driving force behind TON and become its largest validator. This marked a three-stage evolution in the relationship between TON and Telegram—from "historical connection," to "product integration," and now "organizational leadership." Meanwhile, TON’s native token completed its brand transition from Toncoin to GRAM on July 2, 2026, with 81% of the community voting to restore the original name from Telegram’s first white paper. Though this change is primarily a branding adjustment, it further strengthens the association between TON and Telegram in the minds of users.

The Gap Between Traffic and TVL: TON DeFi’s True Position

As of July 8, 2026, Gate market data shows that GRAM (formerly Toncoin) is priced at $1.5924, with a 24-hour drop of 4.99%, a 7-day rise of 2.23%, a 30-day decline of 7.55%, and a market cap of approximately $4.266 billion, accounting for 0.23% of the market. Over the past year, the price has fallen by 43.12%, but the 90-day metric still shows a 27.81% increase.

There’s a significant gap between TON’s TVL and its user base. In June 2026, Ethereum’s DeFi TVL was around $70 billion (the overall DeFi market dropped 39% year-to-date), while TON’s share of global DeFi TVL was about 0.4% to 0.6%. By comparison, Ethereum holds 50% to 55%, and Solana 7% to 9%. This gap isn’t necessarily a negative signal—it’s the starting point for understanding TON DeFi’s unique characteristics.

Messari’s Q1 2026 report highlights that TON has taken a distinctly consumer-oriented path, diverging from traditional "DeFi speculation chains." TON’s on-chain economic activity is driven not by DeFi speculation, but by consumer scenarios native to Telegram products. In Q1, Telegram-issued products routed $88.5 million in transaction volume through TON, representing consumer product revenue rather than speculative on-chain activity. When measured in TON, DeFi TVL dropped only 11.6%, while in USD terms, it fell 34.9%—the difference mainly due to a 26.4% drop in TON price during the same period.

This suggests that TON’s on-chain activity is more "utility-driven" than "speculation-driven," with its economic fundamentals less correlated to traditional crypto market cycles.

Infrastructure Evolution: From Sharding Architecture to Sub-Second Finality

TON’s technical architecture provides the foundation for supporting large-scale consumer applications. TON uses a "blockchain of blockchains" sharding structure: the masterchain coordinates network state and validators, parallel workchains execute transactions, and each workchain can be further divided into shardchains for parallel processing. The TON Virtual Machine (TVM) employs an asynchronous message-passing model for smart contract execution, using Hypercube Routing to handle cross-shard latency.

The Q1 2026 MTONGA (Make TON Great Again) roadmap marked a pivotal moment for TON’s infrastructure upgrades. The seven-step plan has reached step four, with key upgrades completed: Catchain 2.0 delivers sub-second finality, transaction fees have dropped sixfold, and Telegram has become TON’s largest validator (staking 2.2 million TON). As a trade-off, network inflation rose from 0.6% to 3.6%.

On the decentralization front, TON’s proof-of-stake validator set ranks high in the Nakamoto Coefficient, reaching 77 by quarter’s end. This means that even with large institutional stakers (such as TON Strategy Company, which holds over 220 million staked TON—8.9% of circulating supply), the network’s decentralization remains largely intact.

In terms of user activity, TON averaged 90,790 daily active addresses in Q1, down 8.8% quarter-over-quarter, indicating no significant influx of new users. However, transactions per address increased from 19.2 to 21, reflecting deeper engagement among existing users. Total accounts now exceed 176 million.

Concentration and Structural Issues in the DeFi Ecosystem

TON’s DeFi ecosystem is highly concentrated. According to DEXTools and DefiLlama, TON’s total DeFi TVL is about $81.5 million, with STON.fi alone accounting for roughly $38.2 million—nearly half. STON.fi’s daily trading volume is about $37.4 million, making up 80% to 90% of TON’s DEX transaction volume.

At the DEX level, four protocols—STON.fi, DeDust, TONCO, and Megaton—cover about 95% of trading volume. STON.fi launched in 2022, completed its V2 upgrade in 2024 with concentrated liquidity, and by mid-2026, its TVL ranged from $50 million to $65 million. In February 2026, STON.fi announced the integration of Bitcoin and Ethereum into TON DeFi, focusing on expanding real-world use rather than simply increasing asset coverage.

This concentration brings both benefits and risks. On the positive side, liquidity aggregation boosts trading efficiency and user experience, lowering the entry barrier for new users. However, the risks are clear: a single protocol handles most on-chain activity, concentrating ecosystem risk. On July 7, 2026, the TON Application Chain (TAC) protocol plunged over 90% in just 15 minutes. While no hack or exploit has been confirmed, suspected causes include thin liquidity and large holder sell-offs. Previously, TAC had raised $11.5 million from TON Ventures, Hack VC, and Animoca Brands. This event highlights the market depth risks faced by certain assets in TON’s ecosystem, especially given the lack of deep DeFi infrastructure.

Stablecoins and Payments: The Logic Behind Consumer-Grade Finance

TON DeFi’s differentiated growth path may not lie in competing with traditional DeFi giants for TVL, but in scaling payment use cases.

In February 2026, TON Foundation partnered with Banxa and OSL to introduce TON-based stablecoin payment infrastructure for SMEs in the Asia-Pacific region, covering B2B settlements, cross-border transactions, and consumer-to-merchant payments. In April 2026, TON Foundation selected SCRYPT as its institutional infrastructure partner to meet growing demand for stablecoins as a global settlement layer. USDT usage on TON now exceeds $1 billion weekly.

These developments point to a direction distinct from Ethereum-style DeFi: TON aims not to be a "DeFi asset pool," but the "settlement layer for the Telegram economy." When users buy Stars, subscribe to Premium, place ads, or transact via Mini Apps within Telegram, the TON network acts as the underlying payment channel for these value flows.

Validating this logic requires answering a core question: Is the payment demand generated within Telegram sufficient to support TON’s valuation? The $88.5 million in product transaction volume in Q1 2026 is an initial data point. If 1% of Telegram’s 950 million users generate $10 in monthly on-chain payment demand, the annualized transaction volume would reach $1.14 billion—excluding more complex DeFi interactions.

Risks and Constraints

Any analysis of TON’s growth potential must also consider its structural constraints.

Regulatory risk remains a persistent uncertainty for TON. Telegram’s history with the SEC (raising $1.7 billion via ICO in 2019, then facing SEC charges and ultimately returning about $1.2 billion plus $18.5 million in fines) sets a regulatory precedent. If Telegram is classified as a "Very Large Online Platform" by the EU (over 45 million users), it will face stricter content moderation and data compliance requirements.

Centralization risk is also noteworthy. With Telegram becoming TON’s largest validator, its influence over network governance has increased significantly. Although the Nakamoto Coefficient remains high, the overlap between "application layer entry point" and "network infrastructure layer" could raise concerns about governance centralization in extreme scenarios.

Insufficient DeFi depth limits TON’s ability to support large-scale financial activity. Even with a TVL of $469 million, TON still lags far behind mature ecosystems like Ethereum and Solana. Thin liquidity means large trades may incur high slippage costs, and complex financial products like lending and derivatives struggle to achieve adequate market depth.

Conclusion

TON’s market position in 2026 is unique. It boasts a traffic gateway other blockchains can’t replicate—the Telegram ecosystem with 950 million monthly active users. It has continuously evolving technical infrastructure—sub-second finality, sixfold fee reduction, sharding architecture. It is accumulating real-world payment use cases—$88.5 million in quarterly product transaction volume and over $1 billion in weekly USDT usage.

Yet these advantages have not translated into large-scale growth for its DeFi ecosystem. The vast gap between TVL and user numbers is both a challenge and a quantifiable opportunity. Whether TON DeFi becomes the next growth engine depends on three verifiable factors: whether payment scenarios within Telegram continue to grow faster than the industry average; whether stablecoin infrastructure achieves merchant-scale adoption in key markets like Asia-Pacific; and whether DeFi protocols in the ecosystem can maintain user experience while gradually reducing concentration risk.

From Q2 to Q3 2026, GRAM’s price rose 27.81% over 90 days, indicating some market recognition of TON’s long-term value. However, price alone cannot substitute for ongoing fundamental analysis. In a year when overall DeFi TVL fell 39%, TON’s ability to chart its own course will ultimately be validated by the breadth and depth of its real-world economic activity.

FAQ

Q: What is the relationship between TON and GRAM?

GRAM is the original name of TON (The Open Network) blockchain’s native token. In June 2026, the community passed a rebranding proposal with 81% support, reverting Toncoin (TON) to the original GRAM name from the initial white paper. Tokens were automatically converted at a 1:1 ratio, with no impact on the underlying blockchain technology.

Q: How can Telegram users participate in the TON ecosystem?

Users can buy, store, and transfer GRAM tokens directly through Telegram’s built-in Wallet bot. The Telegram Mini Apps ecosystem exclusively uses TON as its blockchain infrastructure, enabling users to interact on-chain within Mini Apps without needing to switch to external wallets.

Q: What are the main risks in the TON ecosystem?

Key risks include: insufficient DeFi depth to support large-scale financial activity, which creates liquidity risk; governance centralization concerns as Telegram becomes the largest validator; and compliance uncertainty highlighted by historical SEC regulatory actions.

Q: What are the main highlights of TON’s technical roadmap in 2026?

The MTONGA seven-step plan has reached step four, with Catchain 2.0 delivering sub-second finality, a sixfold reduction in fees, and Telegram becoming the largest validator. Upcoming priorities include new developer tools, a revamped official website, and ongoing performance upgrades.