Crypto Market Trading Volume Surges Back: Has the Bear Market Downtrend Really Ended?

As of September 15, 2026, according to Gate market data, the Bitcoin price is $76,885.1, down 1.41% over the past 24 hours and down 3.59% over the past 7 days, but still up 23.17% over the past 30 days; the Ethereum price is $2,476.92, down 1.59% over the past 24 hours and up 32.28% over the past 30 days. Overall, market sentiment is in a neutral range. While prices have pulled back in the short term, a CryptoQuant report points out that in August, crypto market trading volume rebounded significantly, which could be another breakout point signaling an end to the bearish downturn trend. Is this volume rebound driven by real buy orders returning, or is it just short-term restlessness from leveraged capital? In this article, we examine the true meaning of this signal based on the data.

The factual basis for the volume rebound

According to CryptoQuant data, on August 21, the all-market spot daily trading volume was about $75 billion, the second-largest single-day record since the February peak; perpetual contract daily trading volume was about $336 billion, the highest single-day level since March. This surge in volume occurred against a backdrop in which spot trading volume had fallen to multi-year lows and exchange liquidity had continued to decline. As a result, it is viewed as an important sign that market participation is rising again.

Gate data also provides micro-level corroboration. On August 21, Gate’s spot trading value was about $5.1 billion, ranking among the top tier of major global platforms; its spot trading volume saw a 30-day growth rate increase of as much as 667%, while perpetual contracts’ 30-day gains reached 305%. Gate’s August transparency report shows that its total 24-hour trading volume for spot and derivatives was about $9.5 billion, with open interest of about $12.48 billion. Over the past 30 days, net inflows were about $308.1 million. In terms of reserves, Gate’s overall reserve ratio is 127%, and its BTC and ETH excess reserve ratios are 22.79% and 22.05%, respectively. These figures indicate that the volume rebound is not an isolated event; platform liquidity depth and the safety margin for asset reserves have improved in tandem.

Source: CryptoQuant

Buy-side momentum or short-covering?

Trading volume itself does not constitute a directional signal. The same scale of trading could come from buyers actively opening new positions, or from holders exiting out of fear. Earlier in 2026, a surge in trading volume occurred during a market decline. That reflected demand to exit, not new buying. This August episode is different: it came alongside roughly a 25% price rise in Bitcoin and other major coins. Based on this, CryptoQuant believes the trading is closer to genuine buy orders pushing the market.

However, that conclusion depends on additional conditions. CryptoQuant clearly points out that the sharp rise in perpetual contract trading volume was mainly driven by traders closing short positions, or being forced to close due to rapid price increases. That means the volume expansion on the futures side includes a meaningful share of passive trading, rather than active new long-position building. What truly reflects directional conviction is spot-side buying. Industry-wide spot trading volume’s 30-day change peaked around August 25, with the growth rate hitting a new high since 2026. Moreover, the spot increase exceeded the increase in derivatives. This suggests that the market’s improved trading conditions this time were driven mainly by spot demand, not merely by leverage expansion.

Latest market action and cross-validation from on-chain and derivatives

As of September 15, 2026, according to Gate market data, Bitcoin’s market cap is $1.57 trillion, with a market share of 44.77%. Its 24-hour high is $79,593.3 and low is $76,705.1, with 24-hour trading value of $534 million. Total supply is 20.0161 million BTC. Ethereum’s market cap is $306.362 billion, with a market share of 6.83%. Its 24-hour high is $2,614.58 and low is $2,465.32, with 24-hour trading value of $411 million. Total supply is 122 million ETH. Over the past year, Bitcoin is still down 31.25% and Ethereum is down 41.25%, indicating that current prices have not fully repaired the earlier drawdowns.

On-chain data shows that Bitcoin network activity rebounded in early September. On September 7, Bitcoin daily transactions rose to 893,391, the fourth-highest level in history, and the share of active addresses surpassed 99%. Still, the absolute number of active addresses remains more than 30% lower than the August 2025 peak. There is a disconnect between the "quality" and "quantity" of on-chain activity.

The derivatives market provides another window. Bitcoin futures open interest reached 676,820 BTC, valued at about $52.64 billion. In the options market, the share of open interest in call options is 61.39%, while put options are 38.61%. 25-delta skew turned positive on August 20, the first time in 12 months, indicating that options traders’ directional expectations have shifted from bearish to bullish. However, on September 14, funding rates on major platforms fell to below 0.005%, suggesting that short-term bearish sentiment has strengthened. Divergent expectations across different time horizons is a typical feature of the current market.

Key resistance and macro pressure

Long-term structural signals coexist with near-term macro headwinds. At the institutional level, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded about $160 million in net inflows on September 14. BlackRock’s IBIT led with $134 million, bringing its historical total net inflows to $64.14 billion. In the same period, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded about $197 million in net inflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA contributing $140 million, and it has now posted positive net fund flows for four straight weeks. But Bitcoin spot ETFs saw about $463 million in net outflows for the week, the largest single-week outflow in nearly 10 weeks, showing that institutional capital is also divided internally.

On the technical side, Bitcoin needs to break above the 81,700 level tied to the 365-day moving average to confirm that a new bull cycle has started. The current overhead resistance zone is $77,100 to $80,200. Long-term holders have cumulatively sold about 539,000 BTC in this range, creating substantial supply-side resistance. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting is scheduled for September 15 to 16. Market pricing shows a probability of roughly 85% to 91% for a 25-basis-point hike, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is near 4.95%. Elevated capital costs put discount-rate pressure on risk assets, including crypto.

Structural changes through the Gate lens

From Gate data, the volume rebound is accompanied by improved platform liquidity. Gate’s total 24-hour trading volume for spot and derivatives is about $9.5 billion, with open interest of about $12.48 billion, ranking among the top major platforms globally. Over the past 30 days, net inflows were about $308.1 million. Overall, the reserve ratio is 127%, with BTC and ETH excess reserve ratios maintained at 22.79% and 22.05%, respectively. This means that during the phase when trading volume is recovering, Gate’s liquidity depth and reserve safety margin improve in tandem, giving traders a more robust execution environment. For readers who track changes in crypto market trading volume and bull-market signals, Gate’s trading data can serve as an important reference for observing market microstructure.

Source: CryptoQuant

Conclusion

CryptoQuant interprets the volume rebound as a potential signal that the bearish downswing trend may be ending. The data supports this: the volume expansion occurs in a price-rising phase rather than a selloff phase, spot-side growth is broad-based, and directional expectations in the options market are shifting. But a volume rebound alone does not confirm a bull market. It is closer to a "conditional signal" that still requires the price to hold above key resistance levels for final validation. For market participants, the core task right now is not to rush to decide which regime—bull or bear—prevails, but to identify which structural changes are likely to persist and which are just short-term leverage-driven noise. The volume rebound offers a starting point worth watching, but true trend confirmation still needs more time and data to verify.

FAQ

Q1: What are the exact trading volume figures for August 21 in the CryptoQuant report?

A: According to CryptoQuant data, on August 21 the all-market spot daily trading volume was about $75 billion, the second-highest single-day record since February; perpetual contract daily trading volume was about $336 billion, the highest since March. Gate’s spot trading value was about $510 million, with its spot trading volume growth rate over the past 30 days reaching 667%, and perpetual contracts’ 30-day increase reaching 305%.

Q2: What is the fundamental difference between this volume rebound and the volume surge earlier in 2026?

A: Earlier in 2026, the surge in trading volume happened during a market downturn, reflecting demand to exit capital. This August rebound occurred alongside a roughly 25% rise in Bitcoin and other major coins, leading CryptoQuant to judge it as more consistent with buy-side momentum. Still, note that most of the volume expansion on the futures side comes from short-covering and forced liquidations, and spot-side buying is the key driver of directional conviction.

Q3: What key price level would confirm a Bitcoin bull market?

A: According to CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin needs to break above the 81,700 level associated with the 365-day moving average to confirm the start of the next bull cycle. The current overhead resistance zone is $77,100 to $80,200, where long-term holders have cumulatively sold about 539,000 BTC. As of Beijing time September 15, 2026, Bitcoin is $76,885.1, still below the resistance range.

Q4: How do fund flows differ between Ethereum ETFs and Bitcoin ETFs?

A: As of the week of September 14, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of about $463 million, the largest single-week outflow in nearly 10 weeks. Over the same period, Ethereum spot ETFs recorded net inflows of about $197 million, with BlackRock’s ETHA contributing $140 million, and it has posted positive net fund flows for four straight weeks. This divergence indicates that institutional capital follows different allocation rhythms across the two asset types.

Q5: What are the main near-term risks facing the current market?

A: The Fed’s FOMC meeting will be held from September 15 to 16. The probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike is about 85% to 91%. The 10-year Treasury yield is close to 4.95%, and the high-rate environment pressures risk assets. In addition, on September 14, funding rates on major platforms fell to below 0.005%, indicating that short-term bearish sentiment has increased. Gate’s reserve data looks solid, but macro uncertainty could still suppress the durability of trading volume.