Bitcoin’s 260,000 BTC Sell-Off Wave Is Over: Will Long-Term Holders Stop Selling, and Can $76,500 Hold?

As of September 16 (Beijing time), according to Gate market data, Bitcoin (BTC) is trading near $75,900. The 24-hour drop is about 1.94%, with 24-hour trading volume around $721 million. Market cap is approximately $1.52 trillion, and market dominance is 44.38%. Over the past 7 days, it has fallen 3.04%. Over the past 30 days, it still shows a gain of 17.64%, but over the past year it has declined 34.98% in total.

The day before, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode revealed a set of key data: Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) ended a selloff cycle that had lasted for about a month. They have collectively released about 260,000 BTC to the market, marking the largest distribution since January 2025. The net position change for this cohort has already rebounded from negative territory back to a neutral level, signaling that the main phase of profit-taking may be coming to an end. However, the end of the selloff wave does not automatically mean a price rally is about to begin. The market is now focused on one specific level: $76,500. Whether this price holds will directly determine if the August entrants can keep generating profits or slide into losses.

The structure of the selloff wave: Who is selling, and who is buying

To understand this selloff wave, you first need to clarify the behavior logic of two participating groups.

The selloff scale of long-term holders is especially noteworthy. Glassnode data shows that wallets holding more than 155 days saw net outflows of about 260,000 BTC in the period from mid-August to the first half of September. For comparison, when Bitcoin reached a historical high of around $122,000 at the end of 2025, the same cohort’s selloff size was about 170,000 BTC. In other words, the number of BTC LTHs sold near the $80,000 area is actually higher than what they sold when the price was above $120,000. This behavior pattern suggests that some long-term holders’ cost bases—or psychological anchors—are far below $80,000. After the long drawdown cycle following the 2024 halving, they chose to realize profits during the rebound.

Source: Glassnode

The buyer side is equally important. CryptoQuant data shows that short-term holders (STHs, wallets holding for less than 6 months) have been in at least partial profit for 30 straight days, marking the longest consecutive profitable period since 2026. Currently, the STH cohort’s profit magnitude is about $16.82 billion, while losses are about $10.26 billion—profits still dominate. The on-chain significance of this signal is clear: if short-term buyers remain in profit territory, they tend to have greater tolerance for price volatility and are less likely to passively sell. Conversely, once the price breaks below their average cost line, panic selling could accelerate.

Source: X/@cryptoquant_com

The interaction between these two cohorts forms the core tension in the current market. Long-term holders’ supply release has been absorbed by short-term buyers and institutional tools. But whether that absorption can continue depends on whether price can hold above the cost base of the new buyers.

$76,500: The intersection of technical levels and on-chain data

$76,500 has become the focus because it satisfies multiple validation conditions across different technical analysis frameworks.

From the perspective of Fibonacci retracement, using the range from the June low of $57,969 to the August high of $82,300, the 23.6% retracement level lands right around $76,500. Even more notably, this level, together with the earlier 0.5 retracement at $77,876 and the $73,000 to $75,000 range (corresponding to the 0.382 retracement), forms a multi-layer support band.

From the angle of market microstructure, Bitcoin options market data provides additional confirmation. Currently, call options account for 61.39% of the total open interest. The value of open futures contracts is about $52.64 billion. Bullish positioning is largely concentrated in strike ranges at $78,000 and above. This implies that whether many option positions are in profit—or not—is directly linked to whether the price can stay above $76,500.

Macro headwinds: The Clarity Act fails and the Fed decision

Improvements in on-chain structure have not been able to offset macro-level pressure.

In the early hours of September 16 (Beijing time), the U.S. Senate failed to pass the Clarity Act’s procedural vote, with a result of 50 votes in favor and 49 against. The bill aims to provide a clearer regulatory framework for banks, brokerages, and asset management institutions to participate in digital asset trading. It required 60 votes to move forward. The failure to pass means the crypto industry will face a longer regulatory vacuum in terms of compliance pathways and institutional pacing. After the news broke, Bitcoin briefly dropped more than 5%, while Ethereum fell more than 8%. In total, 115,716 people worldwide were liquidated within 24 hours.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction adds another layer of pressure. Markets widely expect the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in its interest rate decision in the early hours of September 17 (Beijing time). That would lift the policy rate range from 3.50%—3.75% to 3.75%—4.00%. The CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike is above 93%. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have already pushed close to 5%, the highest level since 2007. Global liquidity conditions continue to tighten.

Market sentiment has reacted directly. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index plunged from 69 (Greed) on September 15 to 51 (Neutral). It fell by 18 points in a single day, a drop of 26.1%.

A tug-of-war between supply and demand: The observation framework ahead

The end of the selloff wave gives the market a relatively clean "starting point." The next direction depends on the dynamic balance of several variables.

Marginal improvement on the supply side. The net position of long-term holders has shifted back to neutral, meaning prior sell pressure has already significantly weakened. In the past 48 hours, the flow rate of funds into exchange custody wallets has also slowed, and daily outflows have risen back to around the 30-day moving average.

Demand-side persistence. Institutional capital flows provide an important window. On September 15, data showed U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $147 million in net inflows. But the September 16 ETF data shows daily net outflows of about $450 million, with Fidelity’s FBTC leading net outflows at $215 million. The volatility in ETF fund flows suggests institutional appetite exists, but not unconditionally.

Validation of price structure. If sustained buying continues above $76,500, the upward channel formed since August can remain intact. If this level is broken decisively, the next line of defense will be the 0.382 retracement zone from $73,000 to $75,000. Conversely, if price rebounds above $81,000, short-term holders’ profit profile would be further strengthened.

Conclusion

The end of the 260,000 BTC selloff wave essentially reflects a supply-demand rebalancing process in which coins move from long-term holders to short-term buyers and institutional tools. This process is inherently neutral—it could become the starting point for a new uptrend, or it could simply be a structural rotation within a broader downtrend. As a convergence point of multiple technical indicators and on-chain cost structures, whether $76,500 holds or fails will provide the market’s first meaningful answer. Until the Fed’s rate decision and the regulatory framework become clearer, tracking marginal changes in on-chain data is more actionable than predicting direction.

FAQ

Q1: Does the fact that long-term holders stop selling mean that the Bitcoin price is about to rise?

Not necessarily. Stopping sell pressure only means the supply side weakens. Price gains still require support from the demand side. If short-term holders or institutional buyers shift to sellers under macro pressure, the effect of reduced supply could be offset by contracting demand. Price action at $76,500 will provide a more direct signal.

Q2: What is the short-term holder (STH) profit signal, and why does it matter?

Short-term holders are wallets that have held for less than 6 months. CryptoQuant data shows they have been in partial profit for 30 consecutive days, the longest record since 2026. Historically, when the STH cohort stays profitable rather than in losses, it often corresponds to the transition stage from bottoming to a trend reversal.

Q3: How much impact does the Clarity Act’s failure have on the crypto market?

The bill is designed to provide a clear regulatory framework for institutional participation in digital assets. The vote was 50 to 49 and did not reach the 60-vote threshold, meaning clarification of compliance pathways will be delayed until next year. In the short term, it increases uncertainty around institutional allocation, but the SEC and CFTC’s rulemaking under existing regulations is still ongoing.

Q4: What is the technical basis for $76,500?

This level coincides with the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the range from the June low of $57,969 to the August high of $82,300. Below that, $73,000 to $75,000 corresponds to the 0.382 retracement zone, forming the second support band. In the options market, major break-even points for bullish positions also cluster around $78,000.

Q5: What does a Fed rate hike mean for Bitcoin?

The market assigns a probability of above 93% to a 25-basis-point hike. Rising interest rates typically suppress the valuation of risk assets. Crypto’s correlation with the Nasdaq often strengthens during macro tightening cycles. The decision outcome and the dot plot’s guidance on the future rate path will be the core source of near-term volatility.